| Underachieving On Both Sides Of The Floor Authored by Andrew Perna - December 1, 2009 - 3:06 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | Merry Christmas, Raptors Fans The Raptors might not be playing good basketball right now, but there are plenty of things for Toronto fans to be thankful for this holiday season.
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After kicking off the 2009-10 season with three straight losses, the Pacers promptly reeled off five consecutive wins. Rather than hitting the crest of their proverbial wave, the club has dropped to the trough as they have lost six of their last seven games.
Two of those six losses came against legitimate contenders in the Cavaliers and Mavericks, but their failures against the likes of the Knicks, Bobcats and most recently, the Warriors, were inexcusable.
It’s more than a little too early to begin worrying about playoff possibilities, but Indiana has squandered a golden opportunity to build a lead over their competitors for the Eastern Conference’s final few berths. Despite their recent slide, they currently sit eighth, just a tick below the streaking Charlotte Bobcats and only a tiebreak ahead of the injured-riddled Chicago Bulls.
Seven of their next nine games are winnable; although five of them come on the road with the next three out on the West Coast (they began a four-game Western swing on Monday night against Golden State).
Better Defensively
A trend many didn’t think would last past the first handful of games has continued through the first fifteen games of the season -- the Pacers have actually been better on defense than offense.
They have allowed more than 100 points in six of their last seven games (all losses), but prior to that they had allowed opponents to eclipse the century mark on just three occasions. Indiana has a defensive rating of 105.0 this season, which ranks them 12th among the NBA’s 30 teams.
Conversely, they have an offensive rating of 101.3, which is good for just 26th in the league. Only the Bulls, Bobcats, Timberwolves and Nets have been less efficient on offense this season.
The Pacers actually rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring defense (102.5 points per game), but they play such a fast pace (97.6 possessions per 48 minutes) that they are actually a little better at stopping teams than common statistics indicate.
Their main problem has been stopping opposing backcourts, whether it’s on penetration or outside shots. Monta Ellis scored 45 points on Monday night; with 14 coming on foul shots (he attempted 16). All in all, the quintet of Ellis, Anthony Morrow, C.J. Watson, Corey Maggette and Stephen Curry accounted for 102 of Golden State’s 126 points.
T.J. Ford is at a disadvantage most nights defensively and Earl Watson isn’t exactly huge. Roy Hibbert’s defensive rating, 103, is tied with Danny Granger and Troy Murphy for first on the team and he’s really the only player (aside from the up-and-down Solomon Jones) that can intimidate teams with the threat of a blocked shot and a painful foul.
That’s why the second level of defense, typically guys like Granger, Brandon Rush and Dahntay Jones, must be more consistent on that end of the floor.
Where’s the Offense?
After averaging well over 100 points per game in each of the last two years (105.1 in 2008-09 and 104.0 in 2007-08), the Pacers are scoring just 98.9 points a night this season.
Believe it or not, the team hasn’t had a lower offensive rating (101.3) since their first and second season in the NBA. Even when Rick Carlisle preached defense and a plodding, half-court offense the Pacers were more efficient scoring the basketball.
I’ve heard people blame Roy Hibbert for the issues, but he’s in no way at fault. Indiana’s pace is the third fastest in the league, so the lumbering center isn’t slowing them down much, if at all. I do think, however, that a number of players have displayed quick triggers.
The Pacers are taking more than 20 threes a game, but are hitting just 30.8% of their attempts (only six teams are worse). Their overall shooting percentages aren’t that good either, which typically indicates that they need to be more selective.
There are two ways you can look at Indiana’s offensive struggles. Either they are bound to turn things around with a number of options and a recent history of productivity or something (or someone) is seriously off.
I fall in the middle of those arguments, mainly because a certain All-Star forward has been far less productive than we’ve come to expect. While it’s true that Danny Granger’s numbers are steady -- his scoring average is down a little more than a point to a still respective 24.6 points per game and his rebounding (6.5) and assist numbers (2.9) are actually up -- he has been less efficient.
His PER is down from 21.8 to 20.2 and his true shooting percentage from 58.4% to 56.2%. Granger hasn’t seen those percentages dip that low since his rookie campaign.
His knee and heel injuries may certainly have something to do with his shooting struggles, but even if he was 100% healthy, he’s still attempting too many threes. Nearly half of his shots (262) have been from long distance (a league-high 123) this season.
Walking Wounded
I mentioned Granger’s ailing knee and foot, but he isn’t the only Pacer that has hobbled into the new season. Five players have appeared in all 15 games, so they haven’t exactly been doomed, but several key cogs have missed time.
Important rotations players like Tyler Hansbrough (four games), Troy Murphy (six), Jeff Foster (eight) and Mike Dunleavy (thirteen) have all missed stretches.
The return of Dunleavy in Friday night’s loss to Dallas is the most important development surrounding the Pacers thus far. Granger should be more effective with a reliable second option and the forward could be the cure for whatever is ailing Indiana on the offensive end.
In two games, Dunleavy is averaging 17.5 points on 52.4% shooting in very limited time. The Pacers are going to limit him to around 20 minutes per game for the foreseeable future.
Hopefully, around the time the gloves come off on Dunleavy, the Pacers will be entering a season-long wave of success.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com. You can follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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