| 2009-10 Season Preview: Indiana Pacers Authored by Andrew Perna - October 13, 2009 - 4:31 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -3.2, 20th
Key Additions: Dahntay Jones, Earl Watson
Key Subtractions: Jarrett Jack, Marquis Daniels, Rasho Nesterovic
Key Rookies: Tyler Hansbrough, A.J. Price
Probable Starters: T.J. Ford, Dahntay Jones, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Roy Hibbert
Point Guard: After a relatively healthy season, the Pacers are entrusting a bulk of the point guard load to T.J. Ford, who came to Indiana last summer in the Jermaine O’Neal trade after missing 31 games during the 2007-08 season. He was very effective for the Pacers, making some great plays in clutch moments while sharing time with Jarrett Jack at the position.
With Jack in Toronto, Ford could get a few more minutes this season. However, the Pacers brought in Earl Watson to fill the backup role. In addition, they have veteran Travis Diener and rookie A.J. Price to play some minutes at quarterback.
Ford is still one of the league’s fastest point guards and is great out on the break, but his shot is still below average. He attempted 104 three-pointers last season, but made just 35 of them. With guys like Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Brandon Rush and Mike Dunleavy on the team, there’s simply no reason for him to be attempting that many bombs. Defensively, he can be a liability in spite of his speed. He’s generously listed at 6’0”, but is probably an inch or so shorter and he weighs 165 pounds (soaking wet).
Watson won’t provide much help in the size department, but he’s a heady veteran and much better defensively. Much like Jack did, he’ll provide stability for the Pacers. He could conceivably be on the court late in close games if Ford shows a propensity to take too many chances. Diener, a gunner, and Price will have to fight for scraps.
Luther Head is an intriguing option as well, although he’s far from a lock to make the final roster. He doesn’t have the skills to be a true point guard, but he’s serviceable and could be a nice play for coach Jim O’Brien against bigger opponents.
Swingmen: The Pacers would have one of the NBA’s best wing rotations if the health of Mike Dunleavy’s knee wasn’t an issue. Unfortunately, that’s simply not the case. However, they appear to be approaching his return with caution, which is a good idea considering the $20 million he has left on his contract over the next two seasons.
Even without Dunleavy, Indiana is solid on the perimeter thanks in large part to the emergence of All-Star forward Danny Granger. Everyone pegged him as a steal when the Pacers drafted him with the 17th pick four years ago and while that’s true, his NBA career as progressed slightly different than many projected. He was an all-around player in college, but his defense was ahead of his offense when he came into the league.
Now, he’s one of the NBA’s best scorers. He is the only player in history to increase his scoring average by more than five points in four consecutive years, topping out at 25.8 points per game last season. He’s smart, has good hands and the talent and athleticism to be a very good defender. I thought a healthy Dunleavy or the progression of Brandon Rush might have allowed Granger to focus more defensively this season, but the signing of Dahntay Jones quelled that thought. Indiana wants Granger scoring in bunches, as Jones will handle the opposing team’s best scorer.
We may see Granger’s scoring numbers dip slightly, but ultimately it will be for the betterment of the team. As a genuinely good guy, Granger won’t have a problem with taking 16 or 17 shots instead of 19 or 20 each night.
Jones isn’t a polished player offensively, but that isn’t why the Pacers acquired him. They are hoping he’ll help them improve a sieve of a defense that allowed 109.2 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the league. The thinking is also that the pressure taken off Granger defensively will allow him to be more efficient on the other end of the floor. Jones won’t just improve Indiana’s defense (both individual and team), he brings experience to the young squad as well having made it to the Western Conference Finals with the Nuggets this past season.
If Rush takes a step forward this season, the Pacers will be able to handle the absence of Dunleavy, however long that may be, while also brightening their future. He hesitated at times in his rookie season, forcing O’Brien to shuffle him in-and-out of the rotation over the course of the year. He has tremendous offensive promise and is more athletic than he looks.
Since the Pacers aren’t considered a surefire playoff club, O’Brien needs to stick with Rush even if he struggles this season. That will allow us all to see if Rush is more the player he was in January (1.8 points on 38.5% shooting in 9.5 minutes per game) or April (16.3 points on 50.0% shooting in 34.7 minutes per game). Even on a losing team, Rush’s on/off numbers stand out; -6.1 net points per 100 possessions.
Frontcourt: Troy Murphy had a career-year last season, returning to his double-double ways after a three-year hiatus. He tied for fourth in the NBA with Tim Duncan, posting 49 double-doubles in 73 games. Murphy is both a great rebounder and good offensive player, but his critics will point to his poor defense.
With the 13th pick, Indiana selected Tyler Hansbrough out of North Carolina. Many, including myself, were critical of the pick immediately following the announcement, but the Pacers are very confident in their decision. They don’t envision him as a perennial All-Star as some do with their lottery picks, but rather a reliable rotation player for the next decade.
He’s better offensively than Jeff Foster, but his tenacity and determination make him similar to the veteran center. He’s not very quick, but uses his body well in the paint. Hansbrough also has a rather large chip on his shoulder in the wake of all the pre (and post) draft knocks people aimed his way.
Foster is the type of player that every team covets and over the course of his career it’s safe to say that a majority have called the Pacers about his services. Right now, he’s the team’s best interior defender and has always been among the NBA’s best per minute rebounders. He doesn’t have an offensive game to speak of, but doesn’t force anything either. He’s never taken more than five shots per game in his career and his shooting percentage always hovers around 50% because more than half of his attempts come right around the rim or off missed shots. Despite Indiana’s losing record, Foster was +6.5 per 100 possessions in 2008-09.
Roy Hibbert will likely get more starts at center than Foster, although O’Brien could mix-and-match again as he did last season (with Murphy filling the role at times as well).
He has great size, but lacks quickness. In many ways he’s one the league’s last (and youngest) true centers and that’s the only position he’s capable of playing. He averaged 8.7 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, which is good, but the Pacers would like to see him be a little more dominant in that respect and improve his defense.
He blocked 2.7 shots per 36, roughly 7% of the attempts that were taken when he was on the floor, but his lack of agility and footwork allow more athletic and smaller big men to run laps around him. Hibbert has a soft touch around the rim, but his range is limited. If you blended the skills of Murphy, Hansbrough, Foster and Hibbert together, you’d have an unstoppable center that would look like something Professor X would mentor.
Forecast: After coming so close in each of the last three springs, I really want to say that they have a good chance at making the postseason and ending their drought. However, they’ll need some balls to bounce their way in order for that to happen. The Raptors (additions) and Wizards (health) will be improved, while the Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Heat and 76ers finished on top of the Pacers last season. How soon Dunleavy is able to return and the progression of Rush and Hibbert will indicate whether or not Indiana is able to enter the playoff conversation.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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