| Greater Expectations? Authored by Andrew Perna - August 31, 2009 - 3:43 pm
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Mike Dunleavy, who enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2007-08, played in just 18 contests last season due to a lingering knee issue. As more information about the injury trickled out, the severity of the problem became apparent.
After making a brief comeback that bridged January and February, Dunleavy was shutdown for the remainder of the season. Even scarier, surgery to remove a bone spur from his patella tendon in March was initially expected to keep the forward out until deep into 2010.
Pacers coach Jim O'Brien caused a stir two weeks ago when he revealed that Dunleavy could return early, perhaps even by the start of the season.
Unsure of whether O'Brien was being optimistic or realistic, I reached out to general manager David Morway to see if the team's projections on Dunleavy had changed. Morway, taking a much more conservative approach to the question than O'Brien, told me that the team had no solid timetable for Mike Jr.'s return.
"We are pleased with how Mike is progressing," was as revealing as Morway would be.
Morway, and president Larry Bird, are taking the right approach with what is a dangerous situation. Still on the fringe of the playoff picture, but expected to show at least some improvement over the next eight months, the Pacers are admittedly a few steps away from the final stage of their rebuilding plan.
The summer of 2011 -- not the famed summer of 2010 -- is where the Pacers are focusing with a huge amount of cap space expected to be freed up with the expiring contracts of Troy Murphy, Dunleavy, T.J. Ford, Jeff Foster and Jamaal Tinsley.
Strangely enough, Dunleavy, part of the group that will come off the books and provide Indiana with flexibility to build around Danny Granger and the team's young core, could hold the key to increased expectations.
The Pacers were in more games than they won (36) last season, pretty much without Dunleavy for the entire 82-game slate. Indiana lost Jarrett Jack to Toronto in free agency, but added Earl Watson, Dahntay Jones and rookie Tyler Hansbrough. Also, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert will be taking the court with a year of experience under their sweatbands.
With Granger coming off his "breakout" season, it wouldn't be out of the question for the Pacers to aim for around forty wins even without Dunleavy back early.
As wrong as it may sound, should the Pacers be looking a tad higher if Dunleavy is on the court by Thanksgiving?
If he's healthy and close to the player he was eighteen months ago, then I don't see why not. We're talking about a guy that averaged 19.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists on 48% shooting. That's a pretty nice addition to a team that was among the league leaders in offense last season.
Even though Dunleavy isn't an excellent defender, his presence will actually help improve Indiana's defense.
He's the team's second-best offensive player behind Granger, and would allow last season's Most Improved Player to focus on defense more often than he did in 2009. While it's true that Jones was brought in to lessen Granger's defensive burden, it wouldn't hurt the Pacers if their All-Star took a few less shots and applied his underrated defensive abilities more.
A lot can happen between now and when Dunleavy does finally return to the floor, but one thing is certain. If he does lace up his sneakers any earlier than initially expected, the team's expectations could move up consequently.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
