| Patience Will Pay Off For Pacers Authored by Andrew Perna - July 23, 2009 - 3:22 pm
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It's simply too difficult, in the age of the media microscope, to sit back and watch time pass without a making a forced move. It's much easier to deal for an aging, high-priced veteran than to wait for younger players to grow into cheaper, equally talented options.
A number of NBA teams have a history of chasing high-profile free agents, and more are expected to do so in anticipation of the 2010 free agent class, but the most well-known example of impatience in sports resides in New York.
After a run of four World Series titles in five years, the Yankees used free agency and trades to construct their team. Nine years since their last championship, the Bronx Bombers have learned their lesson and are starting to lean more heavily on growing their own talent.
In the NBA, which by-and-large is far less stable than MLB, having a long-term plan is even more important now than ever before.
The league's salary cap for the 2009-10 season has been set at $57.7 million, which is one million less than the season before. In addition, the luxury tax threshold has been lower by a tad more than a million.
While this offseason's reduction in the cap is alarming, whispers that the number could reduce much more drastically next summer are even scarier. A number of teams, used to a steady increase in the cap each year, are going to be in a difficult position in the coming months, and possibly even years.
The Indiana Pacers are one of the few teams that are actually in an advantageous position heading into the most uncertain years the NBA has seen since the 1980s.
The Pacers are an atypical team right now for a variety of reasons. Yes, they have the unwanted distinction of having finished in ninth place, one spot out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, for three consecutive years, but bright days are on the horizon.
That's not just the company line either. President Larry Bird and general manager David Morway, who has been with the team for more than 10 years in a variety of roles, are currently in the second year of a three-year plan to return the Pacers to title contention.
As a recently-engaged man (if my wife-to-be read my work she'd probably get on me for taking more than two months to somehow mention the news in a piece), I have spent the last few months searching for a home to share with my new fiancée.
That search took me a lot of places and allowed me to consider a number of options. Should we buy a house, or opt for a condo? What about building a house, something that we could make our own more easily?
We opted against building -- wary of the hassle, work and time involved -- but I did learn that constructing a house is not unlike putting together a successful NBA franchise.
First, you need to grade the site and demolish any unwanted structures.
Bird and Morway will tell you that their three-year plan began last summer, but the preparation started in January of 2007 when the Pacers traded Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington (among others) to the Warriors for a package that was headlined by Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy.
Jackson and Harrington were no longer fits, for different reasons, and soon after the team began ending their relationship with Jamaal Tinsley. Just two months after dealing Jax and Baby Al to Golden State, they suspended Tinsley for conduct detrimental to the team.
On Wednesday, the Pacers finally made their divorce with Tinsley official when they avoided an arbitration hearing by buying out the remainder of the point guard's contract (two years and roughly $15 million) for $10.7 million. It was something they claimed they wouldn't do, but ultimately became the easiest way to finally end the saga.
The deconstruction of the team continued in 2008 when they cut ties with troubled center David Harrison and traded Jermaine O'Neal and his monstrous contract to the Raptors for T.J. Ford, the draft rights to Roy Hibbert and the then-expiring contracts of Rasho Nesterovic and Maceo Baston.
They also flipped Ike Diogu, who they landed in the Golden State deal, and the rights to Jerryd Bayless for Jarrett Jack, Josh McRoberts and the rights to Brandon Rush in a draft night deal with Portland last June.
After making a number of deals over an eighteen-month period that amounted to the leveling of a house, Bird and Morway began the second "phase" of the process, which involved building a foundation.
They signed rookies Rush and Hibbert to deals in July, inked Jeff Foster to a contract extension in October and, most-importantly, gave Danny Granger an extension on the eve of what would be his breakout season.
The roof hasn't been placed on the Pacers just yet, but the signing of free-agent guard Dahntay Jones and the drafting of the hustling Tyler Hansbrough could be considered the addition of windows and doors. Both are expected to keep the opposing offense from breaking Indiana down, much like doors and windows are meant to keep intruders from a house.
The deconstruction of what was the team and the assembly of the new foundation has done more than just set the Pacers up to end their three-year playoff drought next spring.
Indiana will be one of the few teams breathing easy next summer -- technically the third year of the front office's plan -- and the few uncertain offseasons thereafter.
If the roster stands as is, excluding the expected addition of free-agent point guard Earl Watson, the Pacers will have a tremendous amount of flexibility following the 2010-11 season.
They were never expected to be players next summer for expected free-agents such as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, so not having much room after the coming season isn't a huge dilemma. With that said, they shouldn't have a problem staying below the tax threshold.
Critics will claim that Indiana isn't a large enough market to lure a top-shelf free agent like the ones mentioned above anyway.
A Minor Tangent: Many people consider Indiana to be a small market, and I'd agree with that assessment. I spoke with a marketing guy from McFarlane Toys earlier this year and asked him what the likelihood was that the company would create a likeness of Danny Granger in an upcoming set. This was before Granger's All-Star nod, but the guy nearly choked on his coffee with laughter. His response? Granger isn't a big enough star and the Pacers aren't a big enough draw. At the time, I bought his evaluation. Recently, though, I was at a Toys R Us with my nephew and saw a few McFarlane NBA figures on a rack. I saw a host of Desmond Mason, Mike Conley and Adam Morrison likenesses just sitting there collecting dust. I wonder what the sales figures are like on that trio...
The Pacers could be major players on the trade market in February of 2011. Murphy, Dunleavy and Foster will all have sizable expiring contracts that season.
However, if the Pacers opt to hold off on trading any of their expiring contracts from now until the end of the 2010-11 season, they'll be in about as ideal of a cap situation as you could envision.
For the 2011-12 season Indiana is projected to have just five players under contract, each of which should be considered a part of their "core." They'll hold team options on the contracts of Rush, Hibbert and Hansbrough for just a few million each, while Granger and Jones will be the only players under guaranteed deals. They'll pay roughly $20.5 million for that quintet.
Not too bad.
Based on the way rookie contracts operate in the NBA, a player technically hits the free agent market in his fourth or fifth season, when taking team options and qualifying offers into consideration.
That means players taken in the 2006 and 2007 drafts could become unrestricted and restricted, respectively, free agent targets of Indiana in the summer of 2011.
Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo (projected to be unrestricted in 2011) could both be options, especially if the Pacers are still looking for a long-term solution at point guard. Meanwhile, it's possible that guys like Greg Oden (I can sense the city of Indianapolis wetting their pants), Kevin Durant, and Al Horford could be signed to offer sheets two summers from now.
It's increasingly hard to be patient, but the restoration of the Pacers is a flip that just might be worth tuning in to watch. Two years from now Bird and Morway will have traded their hardhats for paint brushes as they place the finishing touches on their well-calculated plan.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
