| Pacers Need To Focus On A Big Man Authored by Andrew Perna - June 25, 2009 - 6:04 pm
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They possess the 13th overall pick, but have been linked to Chicago in a deal that would send that selection a few miles East for the 16th and 26th picks.
Rasho Nesterovic and Maceo Baston are unrestricted free agents, and Marquis Daniels and Jarrett Jack could be allowed to walk in varying forms of free agency.
That means president Larry Bird and general manager David Morway will have to fill at least two roster spots this offseason, and as many has four just as a result of free agency. If they keep both their first-rounder and their late second round pick, they’ll fill two spots with young players relatively cheaply.
Indiana has a history of dealing their second round pick outright, or taking a flyer on someone and then trading him shortly after. There are a number of marginal prospects that are expected to be on the board when the Pacers use the 52nd pick that intrigue me.
Dionte Christmas and Jack McClinton are just two of those players.
Most important, obviously, is the first round pick, which will be used on a player that will get playing time this fall. Assuming they don’t make the aforementioned deal with the Bulls, names like DeJuan Blair, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough have been mentioned as potential selections.
I’m of the belief that the Pacers should select a big man, but this year’s class is famously guard-heavy. One of the reasons I’d prefer that Indiana take a guy like Blair over someone like Jennings or Lawson is that they’d be putting themselves in the same boat they were in last season.
Drafting a point guard would likely spell the end for either T.J. Ford or Jarrett Jack in Indiana. It was long thought that Jack would be the one to go, mainly because the Pacers could choose not to match an offer he receives as a restricted free agent, but reports surfaced late Wednesday that the club might actually be looking to trade Ford instead.
Financially, drafting a point guard and opting to keep Jack over Ford is a smart decision. Ford will make $8.5 million in 2009-10, while Jack’s qualifying offer is worth just $2.9 million.
Last season the Pacers ran the two-headed ship and missed the playoffs for the third straight spring.
Using the thirteenth pick on a point guard leaves the Pacers thin in the front court once again; heading into free agency with more of a necessity list than a shopping list. They don’t have a ton of cap space and aren’t a very desirable destination at this point, which might make it hard to lure a free agent to Indiana in the event they can even afford him.
With Nesterovic and Baston’s contracts expiring, and their return highly unlikely, they’ll have just Roy Hibbert, Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster in the paint.
Murphy had a tremendous offensive season and was great off the glass, but was a liability defensively. Hibbert is coming along, and could very well become one of the league’s best shot-blockers, but he still needs
seasoning. Foster is aging and lacks an offensive game, so adding another big man must be made a priority.
As much as I’d love to see the Pacers take a big man, I’m staunchly against them taking Hansbrough. He’s tenacious and brings a tremendous amount of energy, but I don’t think he’s worthy of a lottery pick. If the Pacers could move towards the end of the first round, or higher in the second, then he’s good value. However, he’d likely be gone.
Hansbrough obviously has the talent, he is a former Player of the Year, but I just don’t see his college success transferring over into the professional game. He’s not unathletic or slow, but I think he got by partly on his determination in college. He won’t be able to do that in the NBA.
I made the following comparison when discussing the former Tar Heel with a colleague a few weeks ago; I see him being a more offensively talented Foster. That doesn’t sound too bad, but reaching to grab him with the 13th pick isn’t something the Pacers should be doing.
The fact has been beaten like a dead horse, but this year’s draft is really wide open outside of the top-three. The decisions that the eight teams ahead of Indiana make will decide who they pick.
Just a few weeks ago it wouldn’t have seemed possible that the Pacers could be in position to take a kid like Jennings, but his stock has slipped.
Blair’s name has been mentioned the most by mock drafters and analysts, and if you couldn’t tell, I’d make him the 13th pick if I was sitting in the front office.
He doesn’t bring a whole lot of height to the table, but he’s solid and intimidating. He’d help improve Indiana’s below-average defense solely with on his presence, and he’s a good guy as well. The Pacers know better than any other team that taking a chance on a good players with a questionable head isn’t worth trade the off.
The only prospect in the lottery that I think would be able to help the Pacers right away more than Blair is Hasheem Thabeet. And no, Indiana isn’t going to swing a deal with Memphis for the second overall pick and take him. I’ve gotten quite a few good-natured and hopeful e-mails from readers that think such a deal is possible, but it’s simply not going to happen.
If the Pacers are going to do anything on Draft Night it’s going to be one of two deals. They’ll either swap the 13th pick to move down (perhaps for a pair of selections like in the Bulls deal), or they ship Ford out of town to clear time for whatever point guard they hope to draft.
Neither deal, unless the Pacers are surprisingly able to pry a respectable big man from a club in exchange for Ford, is going to force much of a lineup change. Bird and Morway simply aren’t short-sighted, and rightfully so.
However, with a number of lower-level teams making moves in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers can’t afford to stand pat completely.
The Wizards are hoping to get healthy, and adding Randy Foye and Mike Miller should get them back to the postseason providing they are able to stay off the trainer’s table.
As usual, the Knicks have been linked to nearly each of one the league’s players and almost all of this year’s potential draft picks. Donnie Walsh isn’t going to have New York in the lottery for long, Pacer fans should know that.
Milwaukee isn’t in the best position, but they were competitive with an injury-depleted roster last season. Who says they can’t win 35 games with a roster thinned by both cost-cutting trades and free agency?
The Nets had a strong “big” three in Devin Harris, Vince Carter and Brook Lopez, who is only going to get better. But Carter is in Orlando now. The Pacers should be able to beat them out to get in the top eight.
Charlotte is full of talent, and they can’t be young forever. At times they appear to be underachieving, but they can overachieve as well. Larry Brown has Michael Jordan interested in how the team is doing, which probably bodes well for the club.
Chicago and Philadelphia were playoff teams last year, and will probably return barring any drastic changes in personnel. I’d say the Bulls are nearly a lock to dance again, while the 76ers’ chances depend on how a healthy Elton Brand fares over 82 games.
The Pistons look like a team that the Pacers could leapfrog, but Joe Dumars shouldn’t be judged solely on the heist that the Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson deal turned out to be. He’ll have them feared again in the very near future.
The margin for error is small for the Pacers. Anything less than a playoff appearance will be a disappointment next April, and that has been made abundantly clear.
Making that happen begins Thursday night.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
