| Pacers Enter Summer Of Importance Authored by Andrew Perna - May 5, 2009 - 3:55 pm
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While it's true that the offseason was vital for different reasons nine years ago, the need for calculated, well-placed moves is very much the same.
The free agency bug hit Indiana that season with a number of their key cogs entering the market. In addition to re-signing Sam Perkins, Jalen Rose, Austin Croshere and Reggie Miller, the Pacers also named Isiah Thomas their newest head coach after bowing to the Lakers in six games.
That much activity would have been enough to categorize an offseason as busy, but they weren't done just yet.
Donnie Walsh, the general manager at the time, shipped Dale Davis to Portland for Joe Kleine and little-used bench-warmer Jermaine O'Neal.
They also saw Rik Smits retire, and nearly a decade later they are still looking for a center of his caliber.
Sure, the Pacers have had a number of eventful summers since then, but none as important as the one they are currently entering. Their full-scale makeover is nearly complete, and they stand a few minor tweaks away from ending their postseason drought in the spring of 2010.
Jeff Foster is the only active member of the team that was on the roster at the start of the 2004-05 season, and the team's brain trust appears content with the core they have carefully crafted.
Today's NBA creates a unique challenge for president Larry Bird and general manager David Morway though, as they must improve the team while also remaining cognizant of the salary cap, which will almost certainly be lowered in the coming seasons.
The expiring contracts of Rasho Nesterovic and Maceo Baston reduce Indiana's payroll for the 2009-10 season by more than $10 million. However, the lucrative extension that Danny Granger signed last Halloween eats up $7 million of that relief.
The salary cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.68 million, while the luxury tax threshold was set at $71.15 million.
If you don't count numerous player and team options, the Pacers already have roughly $56 million tied up into eight players. That figure will probably be right around the yet-to-be-announced salary cap.
Indiana's goal will be to make sure they have enough wiggle room below the luxury tax line to avoid paying penalties in the coming years, especially with the threshold likely to reduce.
Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts are the team's only restricted free agents, and Jack could fetch some offers even in a depressed market. Bird has said that he'd like to retain McRoberts, but that may be $1 million or so that the team can save themselves in the end.
The Pacers could sign Jack to his one-year, $2.9 million qualifying offer, retaining him at a discount. Jack is clearly worth more, but it's possible that he would be content to play for a bigger deal as an unrestricted free agent in 2010.
Another option would be to sign Jack to a long-term, back-loaded deal.
Nesterovic, Baston and Stephen Graham are all true unrestricted free agents, while Marquis Daniels (team) and Travis Diener (player) have 2009-10 options on their contracts.
Diener could forgo his option in hopes of signing on with another team, where he'd get more minutes. He has been serviceable in Indiana, but assuming Jack returns to team with Ford, there simply aren't enough minutes to go around. Add in the fact that Bird is looking for a big point guard to add to their rotation, and Diener would become a glorified Pacemate dancer.
Daniels is a much more interesting case.
He was vital to the Pacers in the first half of the season with Dunleavy out due to injury and Brandon Rush struggling to adjust to the NBA. Dunleavy is expected to miss the first part of the season yet again, but Rush appears ready to play significant minutes after a very strong spring.
Daniels' option is worth more than $7 million, a price that the Pacers might consider too high. But will they opt to keep him around in order to fill the gap left by Dunleavy in the fall, or in the event that he only appears in dozen or so games again?
He played in just 54 games himself last season, but his injury situation is far more optimistic than Dunleavy's. In a different economy, I could see the Pacers re-signing him to a long-term deal, but that doesn't appear to be a smart decision heading into a few offseasons of uncertainty.
Let's assume that the Pacers let Daniels walk, Diener exercises his player option, they don't match any offer McRoberts gets, and they convince Jack to play for the $2.9 million qualifying offer.
That would put their payroll at $59 million for nine players, one of which is Jamaal Tinsley ($7.2M). Excluding the Tin Man, here is what the roster would look like:
Point Guard
T.J. Ford, Jarrett Jack
Shooting Guard
Mike Dunleavy, Brandon Rush
Small Forward
Danny Granger
Power Forward
Troy Murphy
Center
Jeff Foster, Roy Hibbert
Author's Note: Some will slot Murphy in as a center, including Indy Star's Mike Wells. I prefer to see him play as a four for defensive purposes.
There is talent there, but depth is lacking at both forward spots. Let's not forget, however, that the Pacers will be drafting two players in late June. They hold the 13th and 52nd picks, which are rumored to be set aside for that big point guard and a power forward.
Those two players will push Indiana's payroll up to about $61.5 million, a reduction of $6 million from this past season. The easiest way for them to free up another few million of space would be to buyout Tinsley. However, while I'd venture to guess that it's more likely now than it was at this point last season, it's still something Bird is adamantly against.
With Tinsley's deal entirely off the books, their cap number drops to about $54 million, a number that would allow them to go after a difference-maker. But, let's not assume that will be even a remote possibility.
Anyone they pursue will have to be had for a few million, especially considering that the roster I'm projecting (along with the rookies) has just ten active players (excluding Tinsley).
It's a little too early to guess who the Pacers might actually be interested in, but here are some players that appear to fit in with both their needs and budget.
--Brandon Bass, PF, Dallas (unrestricted)
--Keith Bogans, G, Milwaukee (unrestricted)
--Shannon Brown, G, Los Angeles (restricted)
--Channing Frye, PF, Portland (restricted)
--Von Wafer, G, Houston (unrestricted)
--Chris Wilcox, PF, New York (unrestricted)
--Shelden Williams, PF, Minnesota (unrestricted)
Signing one of the above from the guard category, and another from the forward box, would round out Indiana's roster. Finding the right player to make them tougher and better defensively will be important, as will finding guys who fit nicely into their restructured, and tight, locker room.
In the coming weeks Indiana's exact shopping list, and the money they bring to the store, will be easier to peg.
Stay tuned, and watch out for those weekly sale flyers.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
