| Has There Been Any Improvement? Authored by Andrew Perna - January 21, 2009 - 2:46 pm
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They do have some valid excuses for their rough first half -- Mike Dunleavy has only appeared in eight games and Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, T.J. Ford and Marquis Daniels have all missed at least a handful of games because of injury.
Fifteen wins is all Indiana has up on the board, but they have been in contention in a majority of their losses. Unfortunately, a combination of poor decision-making, bad luck and below-average execution has left the Pacers several games out of the postseason picture.
You figure that a team twelve games below .500 loses a fair share of games by way of a blowout. However, that's not the case. The Pacers have lost by an average of 8.3 points this season, including four defeats in overtime and eleven by five points or fewer.
Indiana is 3-5 since Dunleavy's return in a win against Phoenix on Jan. 7, and have lost three games on the final possession in the last ten days.
For the last month everyone has been waiting for the Pacers to turn the corner and start winning close games. The return of Dunleavy, which has taken some pressure off of Granger, however, hasn't done much to improve Indiana's fortunes on the floor.
A team in transition, like the Pacers, would like to have shown improvement at this point, but that simply hasn't been the case. No one expected them to be among the league's elite, but they are currently on pace to win just 29 games this year. That represents a seven-win fall from the 2007-08 season.
The question is -- have their late-game shortcomings led them to appear as a worse team than they actually are?
Let's take a look at some key team statistics, and how they have improved/regressed this season.
Stat – 2008-09 Season, 2007-08 Season
Points – 104.2, 104.0
FG% - 45.2, 44.4
3P% - 37.0, 37.4
FT% - 80.6, 76.8
Points Allowed – 106.7, 105.4
FG% Allowed – 45.9, 45.4
3P% Allowed – 37.0, 38.6
Rebounds – 43.7, 43.1
Rebounding Differential – (0.3), (2.4)
Assists – 23.0, 22.7
Steals – 7.0, 7.6
Blocks – 5.0, 5.0
Turnover Differential – (0.8), (0.3)
Assist-Turnover Ratio – 1.51, 1.54
Despite the fact that the Pacers have been in position to win more games this season, the numbers clearly indicate that they haven't improved in the one area that coach Jim O'Brien was focused on this past offseason.
Indiana's offensive numbers are up a tad bit, but their defensive numbers are worse.
Only two teams (Sacramento and Golden State) are allowing more points per game this season than the Pacers, and they rank 21st in opposing field goal percentage (45.8%). It's hard to imagine that they could have actually gotten worse defensively after last season, but the statistics clearly indicate that they have regressed.
They have become a better rebounding team, but still haven't subscribed to a consistent defensive philosophy. They possess the talent to be decent in that respect, but something (probably mental) is still missing.
Opposing point guards are able to break Ford down with a strong dribble or shot over him because of his lack of size. He's fast, but his defensive instincts could stand to improve. Jarrett Jack was supposed to be a strong presence off the bench, and even though he's played more than expected because of Ford's lingering injuries, he hasn't been the "stopper" many thought he could be for Indiana.
Granger is an above-average defender, but he's been forced to expend too much energy on the offensive end this season. His steal (1.0) and block (1.4) numbers are among the best of his career, but Marquis Daniels often got the tougher assignment before Dunleavy returned to the court.
Rookie Roy Hibbert hasn't progressed as quickly as the Pacers would have liked, which has left a rather large hole in the paint. Murphy has been tremendous on the boards, but can't successfully defend traditional bigs. Jeff Foster is the team's best interior defender, but he's often a liability on the other end of the floor.
The All-Star break is less than a month away, with twelve games left for Indiana before the NBA convenes on Phoenix. I'd characterize eight of those dozen games as "winnable" with contests coming against Charlotte, Milwaukee (twice), Miami, New York, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Washington.
They will, however, face Houston, Orlando (twice) and Cleveland during that same stretch.
ESPN's John Hollinger projects that the Pacers have a 25.5% chance to qualify for the playoffs this April. In mid-October, I predicted that Indiana would finish the season with a mark of 40-42, a far cry from the 29-53 record they are on pace for currently.
Even though a significant number of their games have been decided in the final seconds, and they have wins over the Celtics and Lakers to their credit, the Pacers still aren't a considerably better team this season.
If they don't turn the corner soon, they'll be looking at early tee times for the third straight season.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
