| Month-By-Month Preview Of The Pacers Authored by Andrew Perna - October 17, 2008 - 3:44 pm
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I’ve been pretty proud of myself as of late when it comes to my Pacer-related predictions. I predicted 38 wins for Indiana last season, and they ultimately tallied 36 victories.
Then I left myself open for some criticism when I suggested that Larry Bird target Toronto’s T.J. Ford this summer, and ended up looking like a prophet even though it was Jermaine O’Neal and not Mike Dunleavy Jr. that was shipped out of town.
OK, let me get on with my predictions before I end up patting a hole in my back…
Here’s my month-by-month breakdown for the 2008-09 Indiana Pacers:
October/November
The Pacers have the opportunity to get off on the right foot during the first “month” of the season, even though the first week will represent one of their toughest stretches of the entire year. After opening in Detroit, they’ll host the Celtics and Suns before traveling to Cleveland. That could very easily put Indiana at 0-4 just ten days in, but they’ll face just six playoff teams in their remaining twelve games thereafter.
Projected Record: 7-9
December
Indiana’s games will be split nicely between home and the road this month (eight away, seven home), but they will embark on a tough four-game trip beginning on Dec. 10 in Toronto and ending in Washington just four days later. Ten of their fifteen games will be against teams that qualified for the playoffs last season, which could mean trouble or could mean nothing at all as we move back to square one. That game against the Raptors will likely be the most eventful of the month, as the Pacers will see J.O. in another uniform in person for the first time.
Projected Record: 6-9
January
Aside from a five-game West Coast road trip, this month provides the biggest opportunity for the Pacers to make a charge at one of the Eastern Conference’s lower playoff slots. They will face their once-bitter rivals, the Knicks, twice, and will finish the month with a number of games against teams that were in the Lottery this past May. If they can escape that five-game Western swing with at least two wins, they could be looking at a plus-.500 record for the month.
Projected Record:9-8
February
On paper, February appears to be a very favorable month for the Pacers. They’ll play just thirteen games thanks to the annual All-Star break and only three of those will be against opponents from the Western Conference. They’ll face the Timberwolves (twice) and Grizzles, in addition to a number of the clubs they’ll have to leapfrog in the East (Philadelphia, Orlando, Washington) in order to end their two-year long playoff drought.
Projected Record: 7-6
March
Their first five games feature the Nuggets, Kings, Blazers, Clippers and Jazz. Three of those contests will come on the road, which means that five of their nine games after the stretch will be played at Conseco Fieldhouse. With just seven games on the docket in April, March will be incredibly important for Indiana if they are going to sniff the postseason. Anything less than a .500 record could spell the end for this team’s playoff hopes.
Projected Record: 7-7
April
The last two weeks of the regular season could end up being the toughest fourteen days of the entire campaign for the Pacers, with the Spurs, Raptors, Hawks, Pistons and Cavaliers on the schedule. If things remain as is, Indiana should have an easier time with the Thunder and Bucks, but a lot can change in six months. The Pacers will be crossing their fingers that these late-season games might not mean too much to perennial playoff teams like Detroit and Cleveland in the final days of the year.
Projected Record: 4-3
Projected 2008-09 Record: 40-42
A record of 40-42 would be a three-year high for the Pacers, who haven’t had more wins than losses since 2005 when they went 44-38. They’ll outscore a lot of teams with T.J. Ford running their high-power offense, but we still don’t know if they’ll be able to improve defensively.
They scored 104.0 points per game last year, but allowed 105.4 in the process. Jarrett Jack is expected to bring some toughness to the perimeter, while rookie Roy Hibbert has a chance to clog the lane on occasion if he’s able to earn himself some playing time in the early going.
Danny Granger, the unquestioned star of the team, is a great individual defender, but unheralded guys like Dunleavy Jr. and Troy Murphy will have to improve both their one-on-one and help defense if Indiana is going to play past mid-April.
The absence of a star like O’Neal might cause the attendance numbers to suffer early on, but a likeable roster with model citizens (void of Shawne Williams and likely Tinsley) should help their abyssal gate revenues to increase by midseason. Whether or not they’ll have more wins than losses when it’s all said and done will rely greatly on the number of games Ford plays and whether or not Granger takes yet another step towards superstardom in the League.
How many wins do you expect the Pacers to record in 2008-09? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
