| Is It Time To Worry? Authored by Andrew Perna - September 4, 2008 - 7:59 pm
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Danny Granger would sign a multi-year extension, and Jamaal Tinsley would be shipped out of town.
Now, as summer turns to fall, with mere weeks before the unofficial start of the 2008-09 season when camps begin, neither of the expected events have happened.
Mike Wells of The Indianapolis Star wrote on Wednesday night the Pacers are likely to intensify their efforts to deal Tinsley before training camp, but the fact remains that he’s still on the roster and Larry Bird and David Morway are losing leverage as a number of teams have filled their point guard vacancies.
Morway was adamant about Indiana’s reluctance to buyout Tinsley, which could become a plausible option should the Pacers not find a suitor for the once-promising guard, when I spoke with him on Aug. 5 about the team’s options.
"We won't buy Jamaal out. That's not even a consideration; we're not even looking at that," Morway told me. "Right now we are in conversations with a few teams, and we'll see where that takes us. But our intent is to trade Jamaal and try to find the right situation for both him and the franchise."
Assuming Morway wasn’t pulling my leg when making those comments, and I whole-heartedly believe he was not, it seems as though those "conversations with a few teams" haven’t taken the Pacers anywhere of interest.
Even though it didn’t seem like a possibility a little more than a month ago, there seems to be a slight chance that Tinsley will be on the roster come Sept. 29.
As disappointing as that might sound, the idea that the Pacers won’t have Danny Granger locked up by the late-October deadline is even scarier.
In addition to touching on the Tinsley saga, Wells also mentioned the progress between Granger, his agent Mark Bartelstein and the Pacers in his recent piece.
Wells, who spoke with all involved parties recently, wrote that "there's been some communication with the Pacers, but the talks haven't been serious enough to give any indication that a deal is close to getting done."
With almost two months left to get a deal done, the fact that the talks aren’t serious on Sept. 4 isn’t anything to lose sleep over. However, Bartelstein’s comments on the negotiations have left me a little uneasy.
"You always like to get something done, but at the same time, if we don't then Danny will just go into the season," Bartelstein told Wells on Wednesday. "I think Danny's best basketball is ahead of him. He loves it in Indiana, the fans and the organization. We would love to get something done, but we have to see if there's a deal that makes sense for both sides."
Granger, who will turn 26 in mid-April, has improved across-the-board in each of his three NBA seasons, and is easily the Pacers’ most talented and marketable player with Jermaine O’Neal in Toronto.
Last season he averaged 19.6 points and 6.1 rebounds in eighty games (all starts). He quietly ranked among the top ten three-pointer shooters in the league as well, making 171 of his attempts (40.4%).
Such production from beyond the arc is evidence of how hard he has worked on his game – Granger made just 32.3% of the three-pointers he attempted in his rookie campaign.
Just to put things in better perspective, let’s look at some of the early developments involving the negotiations.
The Pacers and Granger expressed their desire to remain together for the long-term in early July, but Morway admitted to me in early August that negotiations had yet to begin.
"I'll just do whatever it takes for this team," Granger told HoopsWorld in mid-July when talking about his ability to lead the Pacers this coming season.
Those comments came a week or so after Bartelstein made this statement, "These things are never easy; but, they want to keep Danny, and Danny wants to stay."
Even if an extension isn’t signed, although there is certainly time for movement to be made in the negotiations, that doesn’t mean Granger won’t remain in Indiana past next season.
However, it also won’t allow Bird and Morway to be in control of the situation.
Using the Floor Impact Counter, created by RealGM's executive editor Christopher Reina, Granger ranked 46th in the league last season.
That means using the 'Reina Value', which assigns players their "deserved" salary based on their production, Granger deserved to make $11.11 million last season.
Andre Iguodala got a six-year deal worth $80 million from Philadelphia this summer, but Granger will probably command something a little lower than the $13.3 million per season (average) Iggy will earn over the life of his contract.
Because Danny appears to like Indiana, and claims he wants to be a Pacer for the foreseeable future, I wouldn’t doubt that Bird and Morway could sign him for somewhat of a "hometown" discount if an extension is agreed upon this fall.
I see Granger inking a deal in the area of $70 million over six years, worth roughly $11.6 million per season.
However, if Granger is allowed to hit the open market next summer, he could cost Indiana more when it comes time to revisit talks after the 2008-09 season.
There a chance that Danny could become a mid-level star in the league, especially with his status as the team’s best player.
If he pushes his scoring average past 20 points per game and continues to improve in other aspects of the game, there’s no doubt that a team with cap room will make a strong offer for his services as a restricted free agent, or that he'll ask for more money from Pacers.
Teams like the Grizzles, Warriors and Bobcats could all enter next summer with significant cap room.
And having to overpay to keep Granger in blue-and-gold isn’t something these Pacers can afford.
Andrew Perna is a Senior Writer for RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail – Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. |
