| Lottery Summit: Indiana Pacers Authored by Andrew Perna & The RGM Pacers Forum - May 18, 2008 - 5:14 pm
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The Indiana Pacers:
2007-08 Record: 36-46
Difference From 2006-07: 1 More Win
Chance Of Landing #1 Pick: 0.8%
Restricted Free Agents: David Harrison, Andre Owens
Unrestricted Free Agents: Flip Murray, Jermaine O’Neal (ETO), Kareem Rush
The Verdicts
1. What could the team have done different to make the playoffs?
Granger da OG: Health aside, this team needs a lot of help defensively. We don’t have a point guard on the roster that can stop dribble penetration.
DGrangeRx33: If we aren't considering health, then I would say defense. We really needed some better defenders everywhere but at the small forward spot.
darkflashfox: If we had made sure that everyone was healthy, and had let people rest when necessary. We sort of messed up taking care of our players.
glasket: Had we stayed healthy (Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley) and played consistently on the defensive end.
blaha112: Played in the West (just kidding). They needed to play better individual and team defense. It was the entire team’s fault on defense, not just one.
laydo: If we figured out a consistent starting lineup.
Miller4ever: The Pacers were plagued by snowballs the entire season. When one hitch arose, it snowballed into a ridiculous sequence of poor plays to keep us from victory. We rarely carried good momentum, only bad.
cdash: They could have had better luck with injuries. Of course, at this point in their careers, it should almost be expected that J.O. and Tinsley will miss a chunk of games every season. Really, this team wasn’t supposed to make the playoffs, and wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs either. The only reason we were really close was because the Eastern Conference as a whole was pathetic. Still, if we could close games out better, even with the injuries, we probably would have snuck in.
Grang33r: If he had stayed healthy. Although, it still that would have been a false playoff berth. In the East, the top six teams mattered and nobody else really counted. Had we been healthy, I think we would have been the seventh seed at best, and still looking at a very painful first-round exit.
mizzoupacers: Not much -- we just weren't a very good team. In the East, we would have made the playoffs if J.O. had been healthy and effective though.
pacers33granger: Health was our biggest problem. We were right there, and I believe we would have made it had Tinsley and O’Neal played in more games.
count55: I tend to agree that the team didn't make the playoffs primarily because Tinsley and O'Neal lost so many games to injury. It would've been nice to have moved Tinsley and solidified our point guard position last offseason, but other than that, the team pretty much maximized the talent they had.
PacerPerspective: We missed the playoffs by just one game, and thank god. There is no way we would have pushed Boston as far as Atlanta did with this current roster. Because of how close we were, not much had to go differently, but better defense was the most glaring issue this season.
2. Where were the team’s biggest strengths?
Granger da OG: The continuing emergence of Danny "Hollywood" Granger. He breaks out more each year and All-Star status is attainable next season.
DGrangeRx33: At the wing positions. We have very good starters with a fair lot of depth.
darkflashfox: This team can shoot. This team can really shoot. This team can pass. This team can run. This team can foul.
glasket: Our offense and shooting.
blaha112: The three-point shot.
laydo: The Pacers have pretty talented small forwards: Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams. They are all versatile as well.
Miller4ever: The team shot well from the line, and created good looks. Players were willing to try to make things happen, but the system didn’t seem to fit.
cdash: Scoring. We had no trouble scoring, but then again, we also gave the other team no trouble in their quest to score either. We got really solid play at the two/three positions this year with Granger and Dunleavy both having breakout seasons as well.
Grang33r: Our up-and-down tempo. Jim O'Brien said he was going to make us a quick team and make us run, and honestly, I didn't believe it. But he made it happen. When our game was on, we were a solid team. We could have scored over a 100 on anybody on our good days. When our shots weren’t falling, we were in trouble.
mizzoupacers: Between Granger and Dunleavy, we are loaded at small forward.
pacers33granger: Wing scoring. We were consistently getting 36 points per game from Dunleavy and Granger, and if one had an off night the other picked up the slack.
count55: The wings, with Granger and Dunleavy as our best players, Williams promising as a young guy, and some decent play (though erratic) from Marquis Daniels and Kareem Rush.
PacerPerspective: Our offense, although it did take the team some time to get used to Jim O’Brien’s system. If we were even average on defense, we could have won ten or so more games. We actually rebounded well too, but we couldn’t keep the opposing team off the glass at the same time.
3. Who had a surprisingly effective season?
Granger da OG: It has got to be Dunleavy. Despite some defensive limitations, he has solidified himself as an NBA starter this season.
DGrangeRx33: Dunleavy. I don't like him as a long-term player here because of his lack of defense, but he played great this year.
darkflashfox: Granger finally decided to play with some passion and he really stepped up. Dunleavy is blowing away his detractors and had an excellent season, shooting well. Troy Murphy is showing signs that he's shaking off his old injuries and becoming the double-double producer of the past. Honorable mentions go to Rush, David Harrison and Travis Diener as well.
glasket: It is between Granger and Dunleavy. Given that the question says ‘surprisingly’, I will go with Mikey.
blaha112: Mike. There were a lot of questions about him coming from Golden State. However, this year he really showed a lot of promise.
laydo: Both Dunleavy and Granger had a breakout seasons. Mike is steady with his shooting and confidence, and Danny has improved a lot over the last year.
Miller4ever: Dunleavy. His speed was questionable heading into the season, but he used what God gave him and got inside fairly often, netting lay-ups and fouls.
cdash: Dunleavy. I didn’t expect much out of him this year, but he really came through and played like the Warriors hoped he would when they drafted him third overall. Besides his mediocre defense, the rest of his game was extremely well-rounded. Good passing, good shooting and solid rebounding. He turned the ball over a little too much, but that’s a small issue.
Grang33r: Dunleavy. He came out of nowhere to become the star of our team. I don't remember anyone’s value going up as high up as Mike's did this season. He was awesome to watch in almost every game.
mizzoupacers: Dunleavy wins this one, hands-down.
pacers33granger: Dunleavy and Murphy in the second half. I had figured Dunleavy to play better than he had in Golden State, but was not expecting him to play this well this soon. Murphy, who I had almost given up hope on, turned it on during the second half and was an effective, albeit overpaid, player.
count55: Dunleavy was the biggest, most obvious surprise, but I thought Danny evolved much more than I expected. I've re-adjusted my idea of how good Danny can be, upward.
PacerPerspective: There are really only two candidates – Granger and Dunleavy. I’d go with Danny though, only because Mike is a veteran and I expected him to excel in the new offense. Danny’s still young, his ability to carry the team as times was impressive, and will hopefully continue to progress.
4. Who had a surprisingly ineffective season?
Granger da OG: Ike Diogu. There’s no explanation other than he must have run over O’Brien's dog on the first day of training camp or something. He simply didn’t get enough time.
DGrangeRx33: I'm going to say O'Brien. I feel he did an awful job at coaching this team. He always avoided the hot player. Granger would have thirty points on the night, and other players would take the shots that counted at the end of games. He didn't bring Diogu, who was supposed to be a huge player for the Pacers this year, along at all. All he really did was install a running offense, which any coach could have done. He obviously didn't teach defense at all.
darkflashfox: Diogu was horrible. He couldn't get off the bench.
glasket: I thought Diogu would step up this season, but he was not given the opportunity. In the limited time he got he played well, but was stuck in O’Brien’s doghouse the entire season.
blaha112: O’Neal. I love the guy (I live in Detroit, yet still wear his jersey all the time) and I really didn't expect him to break down again. He was extremely ineffective (due to the fact that he couldn't play).
laydo: It seems that Diogu is not an "Obie-style" player. Ever since he came back from injury, he was struggling to get playing time. I think it’d be better for both sides if the Pacers traded him for a player who can fit the system of O'Brien.
Miller4ever: Diogu was drafted ahead of Granger, but has played less than half the minutes as Granger. When he has played, his positioning and agility on rebounds did not measure up to Jeff Foster and, later on the in the season, Murphy.
cdash: Diogu. He played pretty well at the very beginning of the season, then got hurt, and was utterly worthless the rest of the year. He somehow got himself in the doghouse and couldn’t find his way out. I think most fans expected more out of him.
Grang33r: O'Neal. He is showing his age. Defensive monsters like him don't last very long in the NBA, and he has a lot of offensive game to work with so his value is still up there. I’m just afraid he doesn't have much more time to be a star, and I really hope we let him go and get someone younger in return.
mizzoupacers: O'Neal. I thought he would be relatively healthy after a summer off from basketball, but he missed a huge number of games and was not himself in the games he did play.
pacers33granger: Diogu, easily, though it is not necessarily his fault. He has played for a number of different coaches and systems in his short career and for some reason did not get much burn this year. I was hoping to see him develop more, but he was not and does not seem to have made any strides.
count55: Obviously, Jermaine's injury was disappointing. I also thought we had turned the corner on Tinsley being a 65+ game player, but that was wrong, as well. I think Diogu is a large disappointment, and I think that has more to do with him than with any perceived slights by O’Brien. I was also disappointed with Williams overall, but a lot of that was created by his poor judgment off the court.
PacerPerspective: There are obviously too many to name here. I’ll spare Tinsley and O’Neal because while they were ineffective, it’s hard to produce and be considered effective from the trainer’s table. I was disappointed with Diener’s shot and with how much Diogu struggled when given time.
5. How confident are you in the front office heading into the offseason?
Granger da OG: I am not very confident in the front office at all. I feel like there is too much pressure to make a big move(s). I am afraid Larry Bird will be too eager, when sometimes the best move is no move at all.
DGrangeRx33: I'm pretty confident. I think Bird is a smart man, and has the patience to wait and make the right moves. I wish he would fire O'Brien, which I don't see happening, but aside from that I think he will do a great job.
darkflashfox: Not so much. This team needs a direction. We can make the playoffs next year if we keep the roster as is and we can get a good season from O'Neal. If we trade away players, I don't know if we can get even 70% value back. I don't want to take bad contracts or less talented players again. Then again, so many people want to clean house and get rid of Marquis and Tinsley, what can we get in return?
glasket: Actions speak louder than words. All the positive statements from our front office don’t not mean much at the moment for me and my comfort level is low.
blaha112: I am somewhat confident. It seems like the organization is trying and for whatever reason, the ball hasn't bounced in their favor (lately).
laydo: If they can deal with both O’Neal and Tinsley this summer, I don’t think it will take too long for the Pacers to back in the playoffs.
Miller4ever: Very much so. At the very least, they know what's best for the team, and eventually the front office will find players with desirable qualities. Unfortunately, with our organization it's more cleanup than buildup in terms of the roster, but things are looking up.
cdash: More so than I was two months ago. Obviously, the two-headed monster of Donnie Walsh and Bird wasn’t working, and while I would have rather kept Walsh around, I am interested to see how Bird will do calling the shots on his own. I like that the Simon’s are getting more involved and I like David Morway as the general manager, so I guess I am reasonably confident in our front office.
Grang33r: Very. I really think they will make a lot of moves. I don't think everything they consider they will pull the trigger on, but I do think they will speak with many teams, including Memphis for Mike Conley Jr. and Toronto for T.J. Ford/Jose Calderon. I don't know if either deal would work out, but we'll see. I do think we'll have at least two new starters next season and a brand new bench though.
mizzoupacers: I'm neutral on the front office. The results in recent years have been so-so, but in fairness, they have been hamstrung by an absurd number of irresponsible players.
pacers33granger: I'm optimistic, though skeptical. We really do not know what Bird did, but now he has more control. However, with our contract situations, the only thing I can really see us doing is drafting well and possibly getting something for O’Neal.
count55: I'd agree with mizzou. It’s pretty much wait-and-see. I think they made some decent around-the-edges moves, but I need to see what their next big move will be. I believe they've got to commit themselves to moving Tinsley, though I acknowledge that we'll have to hold our noses and take back a bad contract for him.
PacerPerspective: None. Bird is still an unknown as the head decision-maker, because I refuse to believe that Walsh didn’t aide him over the past few years. Draft night will be huge for Bird in terms of gaining my confidence, but he has bigger problems than just helping me sleep at night. The Morway hire should help though.
6. What are the team’s biggest needs in the draft?
Granger da OG: Our biggest need a shot-blocking center. There needs to be a final line of defense to protect our weak perimeter defense. Also point guard, but no one outside of Rose and Bayless suits us.
DGrangeRx33: I would say a center and a point guard.
darkflashfox: If we can get a real point guard, then yes, go get one! If not, grab an athletic three/four that can open the perimeter for us even more, and be a good defensive player.
glasket: Durable players, defense on the perimeter and a point guard.
blaha112: Like most others I would like to see a point guard that can play defense and shot the three (these are rare) and a shot-blocking, physical center. The same two things almost every team is looking for.
laydo: A big guy that has heart, who can back up Jeff and Troy or a point guard that can play good defense and is good enough to start.
Miller4ever: A sparkplug, or a floor leader. Anybody who can create shots, find the open man, doesn't watch while the opponent grabs the boards, or can blow by the defense on a drive.
cdash: Point guard and center. This has been beaten into the ground fairly effectively on this board.
Grang33r: A point guard, then a shooting guard.
mizzoupacers: Priorities one, two and three: point guard. Priority four: A good big guy. Finally, priority five: A two-guard that is really a two-guard (not just another small forward playing out of position).
pacers33granger: Point guard and center. O’Neal is not a center and should not be played there, nor is Foster a true five. We also need to cut ties with Tinsley somehow and get a defensive-oriented point.
count55: Point guard, point guard, point guard. Even with the middling play of Tinsley, the team is competitive, but when you're stuck with the McLeod's and Diener's as your primary one, the team will be awful. A good shooting guard would be fine, too, as our backcourt depth is weak. While it would be wonderful to find a good-to-dominant big man, I think that the risk is too great for a bust, and I would not go for any of the seven-footers in this draft – at least not at the eleventh pick.
PacerPerspective: I don’t want to sound redundant, but point guard is obviously the biggest need with our first pick. If we can either trade into the latter part of the first round, or grab a rotation player in the second, I’d prefer an imposing big man, who can also run up-and-down the floor with regularity.
7. Assuming the lottery plays out true, who would you like your team to select?
Granger da OG: DeAndre Thomas, just kidding, DeAndre Jordan. Javale McGee would be my second choice.
DGrangeRx33: Jordan, if he is unavailable, McGee.
darkflashfox: Donte Greene or Anthony Randolph!
glasket: Jordan or Russell Westbrook, depending on if we want a big or a guard.
blaha112: I'd like to see the Pacers get back into the end of the first round and select the Mario Chalmers. With our first pick in the draft I’d take a big center like Brook Lopez, McGee or Jordan.
laydo: O.J. Mayo is my first choice. Although some may say he is a shooting guard more than a point guard, but I think if Flip Murray can do pretty well under Obie's style, then so can Mayo. However, it seems that O.J. might be selected in top-eight or even top-five, and will Westbrook, another combo guard from UCLA. So if we cannot get either one of them, then Jordan or McGee.
Miller4ever: With the 11th pick of the 1987 Draft, the Indiana Pacers select Reggie Miller from UCLA. Twenty-one years later, we need a player of that magnitude to not only play well, but to make a mark on the face of the franchise. As another with questionable size, I believe D.J. Augustin has what it takes to find open teammates, to stop the loose cannon barrage of threes and get us better looks.
cdash: Augustin, Jordan or Westbrook; in that order.
Grang33r: Eric Gordon, Westbrook, Augustin or Jordan. In that order.
mizzoupacers: I guess Westbrook, but I'm not thrilled about it. I still think there's a good chance that someone like Chris Douglas-Roberts will turn out to be a better pro than any of the guys we are "supposed" to pick. So I wouldn't mind seeing the Pacers trade down in the draft, even if only to pick up an additional pick next year, or something like that.
pacers33granger: I'm praying that Gordon drops, but that is doubtful unless several teams fall in love with the potential of big men prior to the draft. Westbrook would probably be the best choice, though I am not sure he would make us that much better.
count55: The three guys I have on my list are Augustin, Westbrook and Kevin Love. I think Augustin will be somewhat limited defensively (due to size), but will be a very effective offensive point guard, both from a skill set and leadership perspective. I think Westbrook could be a good player off the bench at both guard positions, plus bring some needed athleticism and defense, though everything about him screams Freddie Jones. Love is a good, smart, solid basketball player. He's the only guy with size that I like. Obviously, I'd kill for Derrick Rose, who I'd take if we got the first pick (or second if Michael Beasley went first). In the top three, I think I'd be looking Rose, Beasley and then either Jerryd Bayless or Mayo. But at three, I might look to move down to later in the top ten and maybe pick up another player. I think there's a huge drop off from Rose and Beasley, to whomever's next.
PacerPerspective: I’m not even going to mention players that are way out of our range with the eleventh pick. I’d prefer Augustin, and unlike my brethren here, I don’t think Gordon is the guy for us. We need a pass-first point with a motor, exactly what D.J. is and the antithesis of what Eric could turn out to be in the NBA. I’d prefer Arthur to Jordan if Bird decided to take a big, but that is solely based on how each would fit into our scheme.
If we can trade into the end of the first round as well, I’d love it if Roy Hibbert were available. Just as long as we don’t take a scoring forward, I’ll be excited about the promise of adding another piece to this sinking ship.
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Andrew Perna is a Senior Writer for RealGM. If you’re a fan of one of the many teams that we have yet to feature, surf over to our forums and weigh in on what is happening within the organization. If you’d like to contact Andrew, shoot him an e-mail at Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
