| Looking Deeper Into The Pacers’ FIC Authored by Andrew Perna - January 29, 2008 - 2:47 pm
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Surprisingly, the Indiana Pacers have a handful of players ranked among the top-100, despite posting a dismal 19-26 record heading into their game against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night.
In addition to the FIC calculation, we also track FIC per 40 minutes and the Reina Value (the difference between a player’s deserved salary, based off his FIC production, and his actual salary).
Sit back and relax as I run down the Pacers’ roster and look a little deeper into what each of these three values mean for each player.
Legend: Player Name, NBA Rank (as of 1/28/08), Season FIC, FIC40 and RV
Mike Dunleavy (41): 536, 13.7 and +42
Dunleavy, who is enjoying the best season of his relatively young career, has carried the Pacers at times this season. He’s averaging career highs across the board for Indiana, and is also one of the only players on the team to play in every game so far in 2007-08. His best performance of the season came against the New York Knicks in mid-December when he scored 36 points at Madison Square Garden on 13-for-18 shooting. Dunleavy is a great rebounder for a guy his size, despite his long-standing reputation as a “bust”. His FIC total is greater than guys like Vince Carter, Josh Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Rashard Lewis just to name a few. Long viewed as having a bad contract ($8.2M this season), the Reina Value rates him as underpaid.
Danny Granger (62): 453, 11.9 and +498
Granger is the most-underpaid player on the team according to his Reina Value of +498, and rightfully so considering the $1.5 million he’s getting paid this season (that won’t last for long once his rookie contract ends). His numbers are very similar to those of Dunleavy, and his value on the roster is just as great. Like Dunleavy, Granger has yet to miss a game this season, and he has put the team on his back on several occasions in 2007-08. He notched 32 points on 10-for-15 shooting against the Hawks in early January, pushing the Pacers to a much-needed victory. Dunleavy and Granger are the top players on the roster in terms of total FIC, and have numerous similarities in their skill sets. Dunleavy is a better passer at this point in his career, while Granger is a better defender.
Jamaal Tinsley (80): 401, 13.0 and +29
Tinsley has missed nine games for the Pacers this year, but still ranks among the top point guards in the league. Yes, I said ‘among the top point guards in the league’. His FIC per 40 minutes of 13.0 is better than that of guys named Leandro, Monta, Andre, Mo and Kirk. The Pacers are 3-6 without Tinsley in the lineup, and have struggled offensively with him on the shelf. His salary for this season, $6.3M, is reasonable when you consider his production, but the one thing the FIC and RV fail to calculate is off-court trouble. His issues with the law and difficulty remaining healthy have hurt his reputation in both Indiana and throughout the league, but he’s still one of the more talented point guards in the game today.
Jeff Foster (82): 399, 16.6 and +44
Foster is the heart of this Pacer team, but unfortunately that’s not overly-quantified in either the FIC or RV. What we can see in those values though, is the blood, sweat and tears Jeff leaves on the court every time he walks off the hardwood. That is quantified in his FIC per 40 minutes, 16.6, which ranks first on the team and among the top-25 in the entire NBA. His style of play, grab as many rebounds as possible and shoot only when a few feet from the rim, lends itself to a high FIC. However, an increased free throw percentage, he shoots just 62.5%, would allow his FIC to grow even higher. Personally, he’s the one player I don’t think Indiana can afford to deal.
Jermaine O’Neal (98): 350.3, 13.6 and -68
Jermaine is the first player we’ve encountered that doesn’t produce enough to legitimize the money the Pacers are depositing in his bank account (due to his negative RV). His production this season, 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds, is the lowest it’s been since the 2000-01 season, but I attribute that to the knee injury that currently has him on the shelf. He rushed back to the court to help rescue Indiana earlier this season, and it’s costing him now. If he can rest the knee enough to return before the end of the season, he could help make up for the “extra” money the Pacers have paid him in 2007-08. His FIC per 40 isn’t bad and ranks among the top 50, but the NBA’s top fifty players don’t all make nearly $20 million a year.
Troy Murphy (103): 343.4, 13.7 and -32
Things looked good for Larry Bird and Donnie Walsh early on, but back-to-back players have posted negative Reina Values. The heat has come off Dunleavy, and been placed upon Murphy in terms of who has the worst contract between the two former Warriors. Murphy is a good player, but he hasn’t shot the basketball that well for Indiana this season. He’s close to posting the lowest shooting percentage of his career, at 41.6%, and injuries aren’t helping the matter. He was a double-double machine at times in Golden State, but he hasn’t gotten enough time in Indiana to provide that kind of production.
Marquis Daniels (195): 191.5, 9.9 and -48
Like a majority of this Pacers team, aside from Dunleavy and Granger, Daniels has had some difficulty remaining healthy. He only played 45 games for Indiana last season, and has missed six games for the Pacers in 2007-08. In addition to the DNPs, a lingering knee injury has prevented him from playing extended time when he’s been healthy enough to take the court. After playing nearly thirty minutes a game for Dallas in 2006, he’s barely playing twenty minutes a night on a less-talented Indiana roster. He’s in danger of posting career-lows this season, his fifth in the NBA.
Kareem Rush (214): 161.5, 7.7 and +278
Indiana is paying Rush less than a million dollars this season, which explains why the RV rates him as such a bargain. Rush has produced well for the Pacers this season when given significant minutes by the coaching staff, but doesn’t have a high FIC per 40 to show for it. Rush has however, improved dramatically in each month of the season thus far, which leads me to predict that his FIC will be on the rise as we head into the second half of the season. After posting averages of just 3.5 points and 0.9 rebounds a game in November, he’s up to 13.6 and 3.2 for the month of January.
Shawne Williams (219): 155.8, 10.1 and +91
Most players still under their rookie contract will be displayed as underpaid in the RV, and Williams is no exception. He missed a handful of games to open the year following a traffic violation in the offseason, which has caused his total FIC to be about fifty or sixty points lower than it’s potential. When given above average playing time, he averages just sixteen minutes a game, Shawne has shown promise. His averages spike up to 17.0 ppg and 6.5 rpg when Jim O’Brien gives him twenty-five or more minutes, against his season averages of just 7.5 ppg and 2.8 rpg. Strangely enough, his FIC per 40 doesn’t seem to reflect his superior play when given extensive run on the court.
Travis Diener (273): 85.5, 8.9 and +24
We’re getting into the bottom of the roster as Diener has accumulated an FIC of just 85.5 so far this season. If Jeff Foster were to play 40 minutes a night, it would take just five games for him to eclipse Diener’s season-long total. To his defense, Travis has only played in 31 games for the Pacers this season and only gets about 12 minutes when he does get off the bench. His FIC per 40 is also a touch higher than Andre Owens, the team’s other back-up point guard. His shot has been extremely suspect this season, he’s shooting just 36.6%, despite hitting at a 42% clip during his two seasons in Orlando. The only player on the roster that has a worse shot than Diener this season is Owens.
Andre Owens (286): 70.1, 8.6 and +153
Thankfully, the Pacers aren’t paying Owens more than a million dollars to play the point this season. He’s appeared in 24 games for Indiana, starting seven in Jamaal Tinsley’s absence, but hasn’t done much of anything to earn significant time when Tinsley isn’t limping around Conseco Fieldhouse. His best game as a Pacer came against Memphis earlier this month. He scored 11 points, grabbed 3 rebounds, dished one assist, notched 2 steals and turned the ball over just twice. His FIC for the game? A paltry 3.8 in 35 minutes of play, ugh.
David Harrison (301): 59.3, 6.6 and -14
Pacer fans, and management, have been waiting for Harrison to come out of his shell for four years now, but this month’s suspension for violating the NBA’s substance-abuse policy hasn’t helped his reputation as a bust in the eyes of many in Indiana. The lethal combination of his suspension and his ever-present injury woes, have limited David to just 28 games this season. Even when on the court Harrison has difficulty staying out of trouble. He commits fouls, 3.2 per game in just 12.8 minutes, at an alarming rate. His best statistical performance of the season came in a loss to Cleveland back in November. He scored 11 points and 7 rebounds before fouling out. His propensity to foul, and visible place in O’Brien’s doghouse, won’t allow him to have a high FIC this season.
Ike Diogu (304): 55.6, 12.5 and -38
Ike is an interesting case, because injuries have kept him from appearing much higher on this list. He’s only played in fifteen games for the Pacers this season, missing a majority because of an injury suffered just two games into this year’s campaign. He was putting up 14 points and 5 boards a game in 24 minutes of play for Indiana before his stint on the injured list, and he’s still struggling to regain form almost three months later. His FIC per 40 is sixth best on the team, better than that of Danny Granger. A healthy second half could make Indiana look brilliant for acquiring Diogu from Golden State just one year ago.
Stephen Graham (337): 33.8, 19.7 and +30
No, your eyes are not fooling you. Graham’s FIC per 40 minutes does rank him higher than guys like Baron Davis, Shawn Marion and Yao Ming. However, his numbers are incredibly skewed by his limited playing time and his efficiency once he enters the game. He’s posted four points in two minutes, seven points in six minutes and fifteen points in eighteen minutes for Indiana in garbage time this year. Maybe the Pacers are allowing a diamond in the rough to elude them, or maybe Graham has just feasted on equally weak competition late in games. Either way, there seems to be a reason he rarely plays.
What does the FIC mean to your team? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
