| A November To Forget Authored by Andrew Perna - December 2, 2007 - 12:40 pm
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Here’s what I predicted for Indiana during the month of November at the start of the season:
If the Pacers are going to contend for one of the final playoff spots in the East they are going to have to excel during the first month of the season. Indiana has a balanced home/road schedule in November, with several winnable games on their calendar. Seven of their seventeen games come against teams that failed to make the postseason last spring. A strong start out of the gate could help raise the Pacers’ expectations for the entire season. Unfortunately, they’re limping out of the box with Troy Murphy and Jermaine O’Neal slowed by minor injures.
Projected Record: 9–8.
In the end I wasn’t too far off in regards to their projected record, as Indiana closed the month with an 8-9 record, one measly win away from making me look like a basketball prophet. Let’s break the month down to see what’s behind the Pacers’ sub-.500 record.
The Opening Win Streak
The 2007-08 season started in grand fashion with wins over Washington, Miami and Memphis – good enough for a 3-0 record. None of the wins were pretty, including the overtime opener against the Wizards, but it showed that these Pacers have some fight deep inside of them. Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy did a majority of the heavy lifting, with Jermaine O’Neal and Troy Murphy still battling back from injuries.
The Six-Game Slide
The hope and promise of a 3-0 start flew out the window rather quickly as Indiana immediately went on a six-game slide. The loss of up-and-comer Ike Diogu didn’t help matters, but his injury certainly shouldn’t take the blame for the team’s ice-cold streak. After putting up 109 points a game in their three wins, the Pacers scored just 93 points per contest during the six-game losing skid. Granger and Dunleavy remained strong, but Jamaal Tinsley played erratically and a hobbled O’Neal couldn’t produce when called upon.
Three Out of Five
Indiana ended their six-game slide with an impressive victory over the Utah Jazz, who advanced all the way to the Western Conference Finals last season. They followed that surprising victory with an ugly loss to the hot-shooting Lakers. In reality the Pacers didn’t play horrible at home against Los Angeles, but Kobe Bryant and company shot a torrid 58.3% from the field.
The Lakers’ flood was all but forgotten after a two-game run that included wins over New Orleans and Dallas. The win over the Mavericks was the best performance the team has put together so far this season, especially considering the quality of their opponent. Indiana held Dallas to just 41.7% shooting, while defending the three-point line well (the Mavs went just 3-of-19 from downtown).
Before heading out on a Western road trip the Pacers welcomed the Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers into Conseco Fieldhouse for a Sunday afternoon battle. Indiana led heading into the final twelve minutes, but allowed Cleveland to put up 38 fourth-quarter points. The Cavs won 111-106, thanks in large part to a triple-double from LeBron James.
West Coast Roadie
The Pacers ended the month on a West Coast road trip, not usually the best way to close the books. Indiana showed poise once again though, with close wins over the Nuggets and Blazers. They led comfortably in the final minutes of their game against Denver on Tuesday, but a late three-point barrage actually gave the Nuggets a chance in the final seconds. Luckily, second-year forward Shawne Williams calmly knocked down several shots from the charity stripe to preserve Indiana’s lead.
Indiana ended November on a sour note, with a disappointing loss to Seattle. The Sonics out-rebounded the Pacers by seven and their field goal percentage (42.7%) was significantly better than Indiana’s (35.9%), but the Pacers still hung around until the final seconds. Seattle held just a two point lead with thirteen seconds remaining, but a series of missed opportunities and Sonics’ foul shots kept Indiana at bay.
December Preview
Things start to get much tougher as winter draws closer. Indiana has nine road games in December, and all but one of their five home games is against a playoff contender. It’s not too ambitious of a goal, but the Pacers should aim to get out of this month without suffering more than ten losses. They will have to play their hardest in the middle of the month not to fall into a lengthy losing streak, especially with the likes of Phoenix, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto and Miami on the bill. Sadly, more than a handful of wins would be surprising.
Projected Record: 6–9
Are the Pacers a lock for the lottery, the postseason or neither? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
