| The Other Shoe Has Dropped Authored by Andrew Perna - November 16, 2007 - 1:00 am
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I practiced that very exercise last week when I wrote ‘Fast Start for the Pacers.’ When that piece was published Indiana was 3-0, standing atop the Central Division and thought of as one of the NBA’s most surprised teams.
While highlighting their hot first week, I expressed both excitement and trepidation. I understood that the second and third weeks of their season would be much tougher than the first, and that there was no way this Pacers’ roster could maintain their torrid pace. What I didn’t expect was to be so terribly accurate.
The Pacers have lost five consecutive games, by an average of 12 points. Their competition has been tough, but not impossible. While many would have expected losses to Boston and Denver, there was no reason for Indiana to lose so emphatically to the Clippers, Bobcats and Wizards. What is even more dispiriting is that Indiana held sizeable leads over both Denver and Charlotte before crumbing faster than dry leaves.
Only eight games into the season the Pacers have gone from first-place in their division to fourth, ahead of only the struggling Chicago Bulls.
Predictably, it’s Jim O’Brien’s new offense that has allowed Indiana to look so good at times, and so awful as well. In their three wins the Pacers scored an average of 109 points, however during their five-game slide they only managed to put up 91.6 points per contest. Through the first three games Indiana shot 44.7 percent from the field, but that percentage dropped to just below 40 in their five losses.
We knew these kinds of things would happen to the 2007-08 Indiana Pacers. After being in Rick Carlisle’s structured offense for the last few years, Jamaal Tinsley and company are still adjusting to O’Brien’s free-flowing strategy. As many expected, Tinsley’s numbers seem to coincide with whether or not Indiana wins or loses.
Tinsley in Indiana’s 3 W’s – 13 points, 8.3 assists and 2 turnovers.
Tinsley in Indiana’s 5 L’s – 9.8 points, 6.2 assists and 3.8 turnovers.
If the Pacers are going to find themselves in the win column regularly this season, Tinsley is going to have to play more consistently. Known for his playground-style talent, the powers that be in Indiana knew Jamaal held the key to Indiana’s new Monte Carlo.
While people have been critical of Tinsley during his seven-year career in Indiana, this is really the first time the Pacers have counted on him to right the ship. In fact, during the Pacers’ franchise-record 61-win season Jamaal had the worst statistical year of his career. He averaged just 8.3 points and 5.8 assists per game in 2003-04, with Jermaine O’Neal and Ron Artest both enjoying MVP-caliber seasons.
Tinsley did average a career-low 2.6 turnovers a game that season, but played just 52 games due to injury. Without Jamaal out of the line-up Indiana got strong play from Anthony Johnson and Kenny Anderson, which helped keep the talented team afloat. Even though he was technically the team’s starting point guard, his play wasn’t depended upon as drastically as it is this season.
Negative criticism of Tinsley may be warranted, based on his lengthy contract, but he should be given the common courtesy of one full season as the team’s pace car before the final verdict is announced.
What the Pacers have to look forward to in the coming weeks is an improving O’Neal. Most people are forgetting that his knee still isn’t right, and that he’s basically playing on one good leg. He’s shown promise in the last week though, enjoying increased production over the team’s last three games – 15 points and 8.3 rebounds against the 11.5 and 7.0 he put up in his first two contests of the season.
It’s not tremendous improvement, but it’s worth mentioning when you consider that he’s running more in the new offense on the aforementioned sore knee.
Danny Granger, the team’s default leader and star thus far, may also hold the key to Indiana’s fortunes. Tinsley might be the ignition, but Granger supplies the gas. His third season has been his most impressive, but his numbers also decrease when the Pacers end up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.
Granger in Indiana’s 3 W’s – 22.7 points and 8.6 rebounds.
Granger in Indiana’s 5 L’s – 15.8 points and 4.8 rebounds.
One might look at those numbers and blame Granger for each of the Pacer’s five defeats, but it would be unfair to place so much pressure on the shoulders of a third-year forward who has never led an NBA team before.
Ultimately, Indiana will need both Tinsley and Granger to thrive in their leading roles, and receive the type of play everyone knows O’Neal is extremely capable of providing to the team.
The Pacers’ slim playoff hopes ride on those three factors, but if you ask me – two out of three wouldn’t be so bad.
Should Indiana give up on Tinsley and O’Neal? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
