| Month-By-Month Preview Of The Pacers Authored by Andrew Perna - October 31, 2007 - 2:21 pm
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Pacer fans aren’t accustomed to missing the playoffs, so they’re hoping last season’s disappointing effort was a rarity rather than a regular occurrence. However, if you’re reading any one of the prestigious season previews (Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBA.com or CBS Sports) then you probably expect Indiana to miss the postseason for the second-straight year. I don’t disagree that the Pacers will have to overachieve and remain healthy to make the playoffs, but I don’t see them finishing at the bottom of the conference (like many experts are predicting).
Here’s my month-by-month breakdown for the 2007-08 Indiana Pacers:
October/November
If the Pacers are going to contend for one of the final playoff spots in the East they are going to have to excel during the first month of the season. Indiana has a balanced home/road schedule in November, with several winnable games on their calendar. Seven of their seventeen games come against teams that failed to make the postseason last spring. A strong start out of the gate could help raise the Pacers’ expectations for the entire season. Unfortunately, they’re limping out of the box with Troy Murphy and Jermaine O’Neal slowed by minor injures.
Projected Record: 9–8
December
Things start to get much tougher as winter draws closer. Indiana has nine road games in December, and all but one of their five home games are against playoff contenders. It’s not too ambitious of a goal, but the Pacers should aim to get out of this month without suffering more than ten losses. They will have to play their hardest in the middle of the month not to fall into a lengthy losing streak, especially with the likes of Phoenix, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto and Miami on the bill. Sadly, more than a handful of wins would be surprising.
Projected Record: 6–9
January
The New Year won’t be kind to the Pacers. Once again they face nine road games, against just five home contests. They will have to protect their home court if they want to enter the all-star break in the East’s playoff race. A five-game West Coast road trip against the Lakers, Jazz, Suns, Kings and Warriors will define the month. They have another road trip at the end of the month, a four-game ride on the Eastern side of the Mississippi. Wins in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Miami would put Indiana in good shape heading into the midpoint of the season.
Projected Record: 6–8
February
Indiana is finally rewarded for their road exploits with a favorable home schedule. They’ll travel away from Conseco Fieldhouse just four times. Unfortunately their February opponents are far from a cakewalk. The Rockets, Spurs, Celtics, Cavaliers, Nets and Bulls will all fly into Indianapolis to play the Pacers this month. If Indiana weren’t playing so many home games this would definitely be their toughest month of the season.
Projected Record: 6–7
March
Looking over the March schedule something becomes crystal clear to me for the first time, the Pacers just don’t have the youth and promise a majority of the league has acquired in recent years. Indiana has a full slate of fifteen games this month, but don’t figure to win more than they lose. They’ll have to beat up on teams like the Bucks, Sonics, Bobcats and Timberwolves if they want to enter the final month of the season with a decent shot at making the playoffs.
Projected Record: 6–9
April
Finally we enter the last month of the regular season, which typically brings out the best in the blue and gold (let’s ignore last April’s 4-6 slide). If Indiana miraculously has a hold on one of final playoff spots in the East, their final eight games will seal the deal. Unfortunately if they’re already out of the picture, the light schedule will lower their chances of a high Lottery pick. Only one of their eight games will be against a participant from the 2007 playoffs, with the Celtics the only non-playoff opponent likely to reverse their fortunes.
Projected Record: 5–3
Projected 2007-08 Record: 38-44
That record, a three-win improvement, would have still left them two games behind the eighth slot in last season’s Eastern Conference playoffs. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, the rest of the conference got better while Indiana stood pat (I wouldn’t call signing Kareem Rush groundbreaking). They should still have a puncher’s change towards the end of the season though, because more teams make the NBA playoffs than should.
If the Pacers stumble out of the gate rumors of an O’Neal trade will intensify, which would skew my projections for the season drastically. Indiana will likely extend their playoff draught to two seasons this April, regardless of who’s on the roster though. It may pains me to say it, but they may be a few seasons away from becoming an annual playoff team once again.
How many wins do you expect the Pacers to record in 2007-08? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
