| Coming Up Blank Authored by Andrew Perna - March 19, 2007 - 4:37 pm
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You see, these Pacers are in a strange predicament. After their eleven-game skid they’re now dangling on the precipice between the postseason and the draft lottery. As of Saturday night Indiana and New York stood ½ ahead of Orlando and New Jersey for the Eastern Conference’s final two playoff spots. With that said the Pacers are about to begin one of the toughest stretches of their season – with games against Houston, San Antonio, Detroit, and Cleveland on the horizon.
When you consider their recent level of play, it’s not likely that Indiana will come out of that stretch they way they entered it. Here’s where things get tricky. Sure the NBA is expecting one of the deeper draft classes this year, with the possibility that both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant will skip town after their freshmen year, but missing the postseason won’t even guarantee the Pacers a pick this June.
Remember Al Harrington? Yeah, the guy we fawned over last summer when we acquired him for a measly 2007 first rounder. The interior presence that we were going to start alongside Jermaine O’Neal, the former fan favorite who was going to help cure all of Indiana’s recent public relations blunders. Well, if you didn’t know he’s in Golden State now. The Harrington-O’Neal experiment failed, even faster than the Artest-O’Neal pairing, and now all the Pacers have to show for it are two of the league’s worst contracts (Sorry, Mike and Troy).
The team that less than three years ago posted the league’s best record and fell just two wins shy of the NBA Finals, now features only four players from that roster (O’Neal, Tinsley, Foster, and Harrison), which is a drastic turnaround for a team that started the same shooting guard for some eighteen years.
Back to the Harrington deal. Being the business-savvy men they are, Larry Bird and Donnie Walsh didn’t just hand Atlanta our first round pick they top-ten protected it. The move was done as insurance in the case the team imploded due to chemistry issues, injures, or a blockbuster trade (well, maybe not the latter). Last August there was no way we would have ever thought of getting that selection back. It was the equivalent of getting collision insurance on your ’87 Oldsmobile – one you never drive it, and two if you crashed it would you really care? It was just another reason for us to gloat about the terrific hands our franchise was in. Walsh and Bird somehow got Al back for a draft pick that was guaranteed to be no better than eleventh.
Well, all of that stuff happened – and more.
Now the Pacers are in position to not only miss the playoffs for what seems like the first time since the wheel was invented, it was actually the mid-90s with Larry Brown, but they are also in danger of being pick-less when David Stern takes the podium in June.
If you’re not versed in the NBA draft structure, or you have bigger and better things to worry about (I’m not there yet), here how it all works:
There are thirty teams in the league, with sixteen qualifying for the postseason. That leaves; you guessed it, fourteen teams in limbo. Instead of battling for the Larry O’Brien trophy this spring they earn the right to pine over the NCAA’s top talent. If you’re perceptive you have already realized Indiana’s dilemma, if not, hang tight.
Assume the Pacers skip out of the playoffs this year and decide to work on their golf game instead. No big deal right? They have youth and plenty of talent, and barring any trade demands they have their core locked up for a decent amount of time. Things will be different in 2008 and they’ll return to playoff-caliber play, right? Well, maybe.
Wouldn’t it be all that easier for Walsh and Bird to turn things around if they had a lottery pick to fortify their roster? Sure it would, even Danny Ainge knows that. Here’s the problem, not only do they need to miss the playoffs to get their pick back, but they need to stink it up pretty badly. I mean we’re talking a post-Taco Bell stench here.
The worst of it is finishing with the league’s tenth worst record wouldn’t even assure them of a pick. The way the lottery system works, the fourteen non-playoff teams are given a proportional amount of ping pong balls to determine the top three picks. It’s not statistically likely, but the Pacers could lose their pick if a scenario like this occurs:
The Celtics ball is drawn first, landing them the first overall pick. Next the Grizzles draw the second pick, a reward for both teams after doing a tremendous job of playing horrible basketball this season. Then the third, and final, ping pong ball is drawn. Ever the lucky organization, the Orlando Magic surprisingly land the third overall pick, despite owning the league’s eleventh-worst win-loss tally, one spot better than the Pacers. Per league rules, the rest of the lottery picks (four through fourteen) are distributed based on record, with the team that possesses the worst remaining record earning the fourth pick (and so on).
Guess where that would leave Indiana?
Yup, with the eleventh overall pick. That pick would bypass Conseco Fieldhouse and head straight to the Hawks.
This is what worries me the most. Making the postseason and promptly being eliminated in four or five games is one thing, at least the organization can brag about one of the league’s longest active playoff runs. Maybe Donnie uses that as leverage to pull a trade, or even to keep a guy like Jermaine in Indianapolis. But what else would it accomplish? Other than give young guys like Ike Diogu and Shawne Williams a taste of postseason action, not much.
I’ve never been a fan of people rooting against their own team to get a better draft pick, a la Bill Simmons, but in this case the Pacers need to lose miserably just to get any draft pick. The worst part of all is that Indiana doesn’t look like their all that far for the lottery. They’re only a few games away from falling into the bottom ten, and their pending schedule doesn’t leave much to be optimistic about. I’m not saying that I’m pulling for them to lose, or am I suggesting for them to tank, but coming up empty this May sure does worry me.
When it comes down to it though it’s all about the future, right? So what are a few more losses?
If you’re having trouble figuring out what you want from this year’s Pacer team, or any NBA squad for that matter, tell Andrew about it… Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
