| Auditing The Pacers 2007-08 Season Authored by Christopher Reina - May 8, 2008 - 7:56 pm
Nearly everything that made the Pacers a title contender between 2002 and 2005 has been wiped away; Rick Carlisle, Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson are now long gone, Donnie Walsh is in New York and Jermaine O'Neal was a shadow of himself this season when he was even on the floor.
This has become Danny Granger's team with Mike Dunleavy as his running mate, but there is a severe lack of quality frontline players beyond these two and are unlikely to get a franchise-caliber player in the draft due to their late lottery slot.
The Pacers were 19th in FIC differential at -3.8 per game, which was a decrease from last season when they were at -0.9 per game. They have the kind of team that will be mediocre indefinitely, winning 30-35 games per year unless they allow themselves to get bad.
Player: Overall Rank, Season FIC, Per 40 FIC, Reina Value
- Mike Dunleavy: 38th, 1018, 13.8, +46%
Fans in Oakland that lost Dunleavy from their radar would be shocked to learn he was the 38th most productive player in the NBA and 'deserved' to make $12 million. Last season Dunleavy had a per 40 FIC of 11.5, so Hedo Turkoglu's jump from 10.1 to 14.0 clearly is in a whole different strata, but it is a sizable improvement nonetheless.
He is physically and mentally stronger than he ever was in Golden State and his shooting percentage rose to 47.6% as he shot fewer jumpers than ever before in his career. The Warriors came to learn that Dunleavy wasn't a pure shooter but he did make 165 of the 389 3-pointers he attempted (42.4%).
He still is a liability on the defensive end of the floor but is one of the only reliable players on their club. If they can get an infusion of talent (at the point guard position) through the draft, Dunleavy will be a nice fourth piece.
Furthermore, Dunleavy had the highest on/off net on the Pacers with a +7.9.
- Danny Granger: 46th, 938, 13.0, +602%
Granger trailed Dunleavy by a few slots in overall FIC, but was probably the most important player on their roster night in/night out.
The Pacers were 5.3 points per 100 possessions better when Granger was off the floor, which flies in the face of people who believe he is a significantly better defender than Dunleavy.
His field goal percentage had decreased in each of his first three seasons, but his 3-point shooting has improved. His shot selection has remained fairly static, but he is creating more of his own offense than ever before.
He improved as the season progressed and was averaging 24.8 and 7.0 on 47.9% shooting (44.8% from three) in the month of April.
Like Dunleavy, Granger has great versatility for a player of his size, but doesn't have the necessary skills to be anything more than a complementary player.
- Troy Murphy: 73rd, 782, 14.9, -9%
Murphy's rebound rate remains down from his stat padding days on an apathetic on the glass Golden State team, but he improved in this area from last season and upticked his per 40 FIC from 12.6 in 06-07 to almost 15.0 this year.
He had an excellent assist/turnover ratio of 1.7 and shot 39.8% from 3-point territory despite shooting more than three per game.
- Jeff Foster: 75th, 773, 16.4, +51%
Foster had an even better A/TO ratio than Murphy coming in at 2.08 while rebounding at a better rate and shooting 55.0% from the field, an increase from 47.1% a year ago which puts him back to his stretch from 03-05.
- Jamaal Tinsley: 184th, 415, 12.8, -46%
Tinsley got off to a very nice start, but his knee limited him to just 39 games and the point guard position is unquestionably where they will be looking in June's draft. He really is a shadow of that 04-05 Tinsley, but he has become steadier while on the floor, increasing his A/TO ratio to 2.5. He is unreliable to stay healthy and his performance is inconsistent from night to night when he is on the floor.
He is owed an additional $21.45 million over the next three seasons, but fortunately Indiana's starting point guard (hopefully D.J. Augustin if they don't move up to the top-3) will likely be making the affordable rookie scale.
- Jermaine O'Neal: 197th, 388, 12.9, -84%
To think less than 12 months ago Kobe Bryant tried to trade Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom for O'Neal.
O'Neal played in just 42 games, but he hasn't played in 70 since the 03-04 season due to suspensions and injuries.
His rebound rate has plummeted and his shooting percentage has decreased to 43.9%; O'Neal has never ecliped the 50% mark from his career.
This all adds up to a per 40 FIC that is very average for a player of his caliber, who is accustomed to the following lines:
06-07: 15.1
05-06: 15.6
04-05: 14.9
03-04: 15.7
02-03: 16.7
01-02: 14.8
Is this the beginning of the end or can he get healthy again? Either way, his days of dominance are likely over and will primarily be useful on the defensive end.
- Travis Diener: 199th, 381, 11.2, +104%
With more minutes (20.5 per game) and appearances (66) than he ever saw in Orlando, Diener had an above the median season for the Pacers, primarily because he had an outstanding 4.6 A/TO ratio. His shooting percentage dropped to 37.0% from the floor and 31.8% from 3-point territory; he came into the league shooting 43.9% from three and 42% from the floor.
- Marquis Daniels: 206th, 371, 9.6, -54%
What happened to that player in Dallas who had a 14.5 per 40 FIC in 03-04 in his rookie season? Back then he shot 49.4% from the floor and had a 2.6 A/TO ratio; now he is a 43% shooter and a 1.2 A/TO.
- Kareem Rush: 231th, 311, 8.3, +217%
Rush returned to the NBA and really had the best season of his career, shooting 40.1% from the floor. He was a very good bargain and was a wise offeseason signing.
- Shawne Williams: 247th, 251, 10.4, +45%
Williams had a few good stretches including a great stint in November, but he shot just 36.1% after the All-Star break compared to 45.1% during the first 46 games of 07-08.
- Flip Murray: 256th, 230, 10.5, NA
Murray was a disappointment in Detroit, but he was a much better player once he joined the Pacers.
- David Harrison: 314th, 119, 6.7, -36%
Harrison played limited minutes yet again and wasn't terribly productive with those minutes, though he did shoot 52.9%.
- Ike Diogu: 325th 102, 13.3, -57%
Some people believed Diogu would tip the scales in Indiana's way with the Golden State trade, but he has hardly looked like a lottery pick and will someday be known as the guy picked one slot ahead of Andrew Bynum.
His per 40 FIC is solid, but the Pacers were -10.4 points per 100 possessions worse with Diogu on the floor.
Diogu's low post game hasn't adapted to the NBA and he still hasn't developed a dependable jumper.
- Andre Owens: 334th, 88, 9.0, +32%
Owens shot 37.4% from the floor and 45.0% from 3-point territory.
- Stephen Graham: 370th, 52, 16.3, +0%
Graham only played 22 games but was 2.8 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the floor.
How The Pacers Were Acquired
- Foster, Granger, Harrison, Tinsley and Williams were acquired via the draft.
- Diener, Graham, Murray, Owens and Rush were free agent signings.
- Daniels, Diogu, Dunleavy, Murphy and O'Neal were acquired via various trades.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of The Reina Value which determines the value of players in relation to their contract. |
